In what may prove to be Lionel Messi’s final World Cup, 2014 finalist Argentina is on the verge of an embarrassing exit in the group stage after a shocking 3-0 loss to Croatia on Thursday. Argentina opened play in Group D with a 1-1 draw with underdog Iceland, and now has just a single point with one game left to play.
Fortunately for Argentina, the squad will still have a chance to sneak into the knockout round, barring a massive rout in Friday’s Iceland-Nigeria game – but Messi’s team will have to play much better in its group stage finale than it has so far in Russia. If Argentina only manages a draw with Nigeria on June 26th, the country can’t possibly advance.
Here’s how Argentina can make it through as the runner-up in Group D:
If Nigeria beats Iceland Friday:
This is what Argentina fans will be hoping for. A Nigerian win will give the team three total points, but Argentina will play Nigeria on June 26th and have a chance to vault into second in the group.
- Argentina must beat Nigeria on June 26th
- Croatia must win or draw with Iceland on June 26th
- If Iceland beats Croatia to get to four points, Argentina must overcome the goal difference between the two teams (currently -3)
If Iceland beats Nigeria Friday:
This is the worst-case scenario for Argentina. A win gives Iceland four total points, which Argentina can only match. To make matters worse, the lopsided loss to Croatia means Argentina would have to overcome at least a four-goal difference to win a tiebreaker with Iceland, assuming Croatia beats Iceland in the group finale.
- Iceland must to lose against Croatia on June 26th
- Argentina must beat Nigeria on June 26th by a wide margin
- Argentina would have to match Iceland’s goal difference in the group and eclipse Iceland’s goal total to win the tiebreaker.
If Iceland and Nigeria draw:
An Iceland draw would be great for Argentina, assuming group leader Croatia doesn’t lose. This result would give Iceland two points and Nigeria one point heading into the final day.
- Argentina must beat Nigeria on June 26th
- Iceland must lose or draw with Croatia on June 26th
No matter what happens, the runner up in Group D will meet the winner of Group C, which is likely to be France, in the Round of 16.