Rafomac News, Tech & Trends That MatterBitcoin has tumbled 50% from its peak in October, slipping behind both the NASDAQ and gold. But four rare, slow-moving indicators suggest it may be approaching a major bottom. Could this be the quiet signal investors have been waiting for?
Bitcoin’s Struggle Against Giants like NASDAQ and Gold
Bitcoin has fallen drastically, trailing the NASDAQ and gold, two benchmarks it once rivaled. Since its October high, it has lost half its value and now trades near the average cost basis of its entire network. This positioning against major assets paints a clearer picture that we might be closer to the latter stages of this bear market than the chaotic beginning phases.
The first comparison pits Bitcoin against the NASDAQ, representing risk assets. Over a nine-year stretch since 2017, Bitcoin’s price performance relative to NASDAQ has been flat—meaning investors have shouldered far greater volatility with no real returns. A 14-week RSI captures the overstretched divergence between these two, showing Bitcoin now at an unprecedented level of oversold status against the tech-heavy index.
This indicator, which has only flashed four times since 2010, signals historically that Bitcoin soon outperforms after long-term periods of deep undervaluation, though not necessarily immediately. Past bear market lows marked by this signal saw strong recoveries usually over one to three years with Bitcoin beating NASDAQ returns substantially—albeit with diminishing strength over each cycle.
Next, Bitcoin is compared to gold in its more traditional role as a monetary asset. Gold recently reached its most overbought stance against Bitcoin ever recorded, meaning Bitcoin is as cheap relative to gold as it’s ever been. Considering gold’s decade-long bull and consolidation phases versus Bitcoin’s much younger 20-year history, this signal hints that the current undervaluation could mark a turning point. Again, past readings at these extremes aligned with significant Bitcoin lows, followed by years of above-average performance.
On-Chain Reality Checks With Realized Price
On the blockchain side, the realized price offers another key insight. It estimates the average price at which all existing bitcoins last moved, serving as a proxy for the network’s collective cost basis. Although skewed slightly downward due to lost or dormant coins, hitting or dipping below the realized price has historically been a hallmark of bear market bottoms.
Bitcoin is now flirting with this benchmark, having approached and occasionally pierced it in past downturns. While prices often fall further even after crossing the realized price, long-term returns after such lows have been positive—again, with diminishing profitability over consecutive cycles.
Time Is the Ultimate Indicator
The longest-lived signal anchors on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Previous bear markets following 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks lasted about 60 weeks each. Currently, Bitcoin has weathered approximately 40 weeks of this downturn, nudging closer to the typical timeline for a bottom near November. It’s not a foolproof forecast but it’s one of the clearest historical rhythms Bitcoin has consistently followed.
Expert analysis modeling Bitcoin’s future trajectory paints a muddled picture through 2026 with possibilities of further dips or sideways trading. Beyond that, history suggests a comeback phase could unfold starting 2027, yielding rewarding returns for those who begin accumulating now rather than waiting for a perceived “safe” moment.
What This Means for Investors
All these signals—oversold status versus NASDAQ and gold, proximity to realized price, and seasonality of the bear market—combine to suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching a significant floor. But it’s a complex mosaic, not a guaranteed path. These measurements aren’t independent; they reflect Bitcoin’s broad decline against various benchmarks. And factors like new ETF products or shifts in market structure could alter traditional patterns.
Still, if you believe Bitcoin holds value as a hedge against currency debasement and monetary inflation—a narrative still resonating with many—then starting to build a position during this phase could be sensible. It’s far easier to imagine better risk-reward being present now than during peaks when euphoria drives prices sky-high.
Of course, no one can pinpoint exact bottoms, and every investment should be weighed carefully against your own tolerance and portfolio goals.
For those curious about the detailed charts and in-depth comparisons underlying these conclusions, a closer look at Luke Leisure’s research at Blockworks provides ample material. His slow-moving, long-term indicators offer a refreshing lens amid the daily noise around Bitcoin.
