Rafomac News, Tech & Trends That MatterHyperliquid has soared for months, but now its fate boils down to a single question: will the unreleased tokens flood the market soon? The answer could make or break its $12.5 billion valuation.
What’s driving Hyperliquid’s valuation right now?
Hyperliquid, both an exchange and a blockchain, lets traders buy and sell contracts that generate fees. These fees fund buybacks of their token, creating a support mechanism. But revenue has been slipping since the Q3 2025 Bitcoin peak amid the broader crypto bear market. Crucially, most volume now comes from niche non-crypto markets where fees were heavily discounted—sometimes 90% less than standard—during a ‘growth mode’ phase.
Recently, these fee discounts ended. Market deployers—be it oil contracts, Korean stocks, or Samsung shares—can now adjust fees anywhere from 10% of standard charges up to triple the normal rate. How this pricing flexibility plays out will be key in shaping revenue moving forward.
Is Hyperliquid priced like an exchange or a blockchain?
At present, Hyperliquid trades with the multiples of a traditional exchange. Looking at giant players like NASDAQ or Robinhood, revenue multiples hover around 22x. Hyperliquid’s valuation fits this mold because it’s building out newer revenue streams like fees from USDC deployments and priority trading fees. But it’s not valued like a blockchain, such as Ethereum or Solana, which trade at far higher multiples—Ethereum exceeding 900x revenue.
Despite being a blockchain, Hyperliquid captures about 11% of on-chain fees across crypto, yet accounts for only about 0.6% of token market caps in aggregate—excluding giants like Bitcoin and Tether. If all tokens were released, that proportion jumps to 2.7%, highlighting a major disconnect between revenue capture and valuation.
The big question: when will all tokens be released?
Right now, roughly 730 million Hyperliquid tokens remain unreleased. About 40% are earmarked for future community rewards—staking, airdrops, incentives—with details yet undecided. Another sizeable chunk is reserved for the team: granted 9.9 million tokens monthly, they’ve been releasing less than half a million so far. This deliberate restraint suggests strong alignment between the team and long-term token value.
But here’s the hitch. The monthly token releases that do occur represent nearly 75% of all tokens being bought back in Hyperliquid’s recent buyback programs. If the team starts releasing tokens at their allotment pace, that’s about 20 times the monthly buyback volume, potentially flooding the market and diluting impact.
Why do buybacks make less impact as prices rise?
As Hyperliquid’s token price climbs, the buybacks naturally shrink in effectiveness. With revenues dropping over recent quarters, their capacity to purchase and remove tokens decreases relative to circulating supply. For instance, buybacks have fallen from around $2.5 million per month to under $600,000.
This creates an unusual dynamic: the lower the token price, the more Hyperliquid’s assistance fund jumps in to support it, functioning like a dynamic dollar-cost averaging system rather than a fixed buyback.
How competitive is Hyperliquid’s market?
The perpetuals trading space, where Hyperliquid operates, is crowded and fiercely competitive. Rivals have sprung up, claiming chunks of the market share at times. Hyperliquid has successfully weathered these challenges, but ongoing competition means they must constantly innovate to stay on top.
Compared to giants like Apple or Meta, who spent years buying back large equity stakes, Hyperliquid has only removed about 5.9% of its circulating tokens and a mere 1.5% of total potential tokens. This buyback scale, while meaningful, looks small relative to what’s possible.
What’s the future vision?
Hyperliquid aims to be the “house of all finance”—a hub where users can hold everything from spot crypto and long-term equity tokens to commodities like oil, earn interest, and access banking-like services.
Yet, today, it’s priced purely as an exchange, and to justify higher valuations, it needs to reclaim revenue and volume levels seen in late 2025. Its current market pricing reflects expectations that unreleased tokens will trickle out slowly over years and that regulatory environments won’t stifle business growth.
How does regulation factor in?
If tough regulations hit, especially in major markets like the US, Hyperliquid could face serious setbacks. It’s notable that their team maintains a presence in Washington, striving for positive regulatory outcomes around perpetuals trading. If efforts fail, the impact could be severe.
However, unlike Binance, which operates outside US jurisdiction, Hyperliquid’s US engagement may be both a strength and a vulnerability depending on regulatory shifts.
Why might Hyperliquid still be attractive to crypto bulls?
From a crypto perspective, Hyperliquid’s tokenomics reset many industry standards by returning value directly to token holders through buybacks funded by fees. Over the past year, it’s consistently out-earned almost every on-chain protocol. This positions it as a compelling play for those who believe in blockchain finance growth.
If the trend toward tokenizing trillions of dollars in traditional assets continues, a platform like Hyperliquid—offering trading and hedging facilities for these positions—could command a significantly larger market value than today.
Bottom line
At its core, Hyperliquid’s price hinges on whether those 730 million unreleased tokens emerge quickly or slowly, and whether its revenues can bounce back. A rapid token release without matching volume growth could crash prices, while slow release paired with expanding business might justify current or higher valuations.
Every investor needs to parse these dynamics carefully and weigh them against their risk appetite and crypto outlook. The single question of token release timing remains the most decisive factor for Hyperliquid’s future.
