Rafomac News, Tech & Trends That MatterSpaceX stock has taken a hit after its initial surge, leaving many investors wondering when to jump back in. Meanwhile, Tesla’s future hinges on bold bets, from robo-taxis to robots. Here’s a clear-eyed look at what could make now the right time to buy into both giants.
Why Timothy’s Booster Landers Sparked a Deeper Look
Driving past Port Canaveral, past the rusted SpaceX booster landers, sparked a rare moment of clarity. It was a vivid reminder of the tangible reality behind SpaceX’s ambitions—remnants of rocket landings that preview the direction of the future. For financial analyst Kevin, this moment dovetailed perfectly with the deep-dive he was crafting on SpaceX and Tesla stocks.
He shared three projections: one for SpaceX alone, one for Tesla alone, and a third, combined scenario reflecting a bold strategy he’s been mulling over for months—a potential SpaceX acquisition of Tesla.
It’s a lot to digest, but the payoff could be worth it.
What’s Next for Tesla? Why Robo-Taxis Might Not Deliver
Kevin’s forecast leans conservative on Tesla’s robotic taxi service, which many thought would be a game changer. He suspects Tesla might just abandon the low-margin robo-taxi business, focusing instead on selling cars with top-tier Full Self Driving (FSD) software via subscriptions. That 99.9% effective FSD is already impressive, with Elon Musk himself aiming for even higher reliability for robotaxis down the road.
For Tesla, the projections assume 4 million vehicle sales by 2030, with a steady revenue of $34,000 per vehicle and an 18% net margin—optimistic but grounded in recent efficiencies like streamlining production lines.
Energy sales could balloon to $50 billion with a solid 22% margin. Meanwhile, semi-trucks and insurance will contribute more modestly to operating income, with the semi only reaching about a billion dollars by 2030.
And then there’s the Tesla Bot—Optimus—expected to generate $6.2 billion in operating income by 2030, at a $50,000 price point. Inflation and rising R&D costs are pushing that price up, but consumer demand for robots, if it materializes, could provide a significant revenue stream.
SpaceX’s Starship Is Key—But the Ramp-Up Will Take Time
On the SpaceX side, the big story is the shift from Falcon 9 rockets to the Starship system. Falcon 9 orders wrap up by 2029 because Starship’s massive payload capacity will redefine the business.
Kevin estimates SpaceX’s launch services could reach $2 billion in operating income, assuming about 100 launches a year initially, scaling up to 200. Yet, he puts this revenue well below Tesla Bot’s potential, calling it more of a slow burn.
Starlink is another critical player—currently bringing in $4.4 billion in operating income with projections growing at a compound rate of 35%, reaching around $15 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s AI infrastructure may generate an operating income of $2.5 billion based on a modest 5% capital return.
All combined, Kevin sees a potential $67.4 billion in operating income for a combined SpaceX-Tesla entity by the end of 2030.
How the SpaceX-Tesla Combo Could Shift the Game
Here’s the dramatic twist: if Tesla stock falls to around $100 per share, Kevin’s model suggests SpaceX could swoop in for a takeover, increasing SpaceX’s shares outstanding to approximately 11 billion from 7.5 billion.
After taxes and interest, the combined company could deliver around $53 billion in net income, translating to roughly $4.84 earnings per share and a future valuation of $327 per share by 2030. Buying in at $80 would mean a roughly 42% annual return over four years.
Without a Tesla merger, buying SpaceX at $80 puts its fair value at $139 per share by 2030, yielding a solid 14.8% annual return. Tesla alone, under current assumptions, could grow to a fair value of $639 per share (from roughly 4 billion shares outstanding), which translates to a 19% annualized gain if you buy at $310 today.
But if Tesla vehicle deliveries stall at 2 million annually and the Optimus bot fails to scale, valuations drop sharply and the returns could barely beat treasuries.
When to Buy According to the Numbers
For investors pondering entry points, Kevin’s conservative price targets are clear: SpaceX should be considered a buy under $80 a share, and Tesla under $225 a share.
He warns the post-IPO hype has fizzled, and both stocks might drop further during a recession or execution delays. But if you can wait for prices to fall into that range, there’s substantial reward potential—even assuming bumps and setbacks along the way.
In short, patience pays. There’s no rush to jump in at the current levels unless you’re more bullish than Kevin’s thoughtful analyses suggest.
Neither Easy Nor Risk-Free
Kevin’s analysis is laced with caution—execution risks lurk at every turn, and wider economic shocks could slow progress. Yet the projections do not seem overly optimistic given the innovations lined up and the real revenue streams already showing promise.
His stance is a steady reminder: buying tech stocks, especially ones so tied to visionary goals, requires a willingness to endure volatility and missed milestones.
For those with an appetite for risk and a time horizon stretching years ahead, waiting for SpaceX to slip under $80 or Tesla below $225 could be the sweet spot for investment—not based on hype, but grounded in numbers.
